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Ukraine.


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  • 2 weeks later...

Putin is trying to reassemble the soviet union only without the Soviet part.

 

 

I posted this elsewhere three days ago:

"

Pessimist?  I can see Putin recreating the "Sudetenland" tactic and moving in forces, giving as justification the protection of the Russian-speaking people of the Eastern Ukraine.

 

I hope I'm completely wrong, but thinking "no-one would be so stupid as to do that" hasn't had a great track record as a basis for successful predictions so far this century."

 

 

Chris

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Hell, he's got Crimea, and is already moving into eastern Ukraine. That didn't take long.

 

May well be.  But if so, this is not going to be a relatively orderly and peaceful rearrangement of states, as in the former Czechoslovakia.  This is far more likely to be like the former Yugoslavia.

 

The Tatars will not accept a Russian Crimea. Not with their history.

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I think Putin will be able to hold Crimea without a whole lot of unrest.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/tensions-rise-in-crimean-capital-as-armed-men-continue-to-take-up-posts.html?_r=0

There appears to be popular support for a Russian takeover.

I'm not seeing how we could get troops in there even if we wanted to...and there's a reason the cold war was fought through proxies.

Fighting Russia directly is still, like, world war 3 time.

 

...Our leaders have to make lots of noise, of course.

Edited by Stickler
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I think Putin will be able to hold Crimea without a whole lot of unrest.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/02/world/europe/tensions-rise-in-crimean-capital-as-armed-men-continue-to-take-up-posts.html?_r=0

There appears to be popular support for a Russian takeover.

 

...Our leaders have to make lots of noise, of course.

 

I can't see anything but violent unrest.  Yes, the majority in the Crimea are Russian-speaking and largely Russian inclined, but the minority are *very* anti-Russian, and being made more so by current events.  

A largely autonomous Crimea within the Ukraine had been (approximately) for all parties a tolerable situation "for now"  for sixty years.

 

I'd like to be wrong, but I see this becoming very bloody, and not as a short sharp conflict.

 

Yes, RUSSIA, UK, and USA had agreed to assure the Ukraine's , territory, sovereignty and independence.

"Put not your trust in princes."

 

I see parallels from  my history reading, and not good ones.

 Czechoslovakia, 1938

Belgium, 1914

 

And the United Nations looking as powerful as its failed predecessor The League of Nations.

 

What a new century.  Did we learn anything from the last one?

 

Chris

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wonderful.

 

The link says "page not found."

 

 

BBC front page here, including live emails and tweets

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/

 

 

"12:50: Boris Sergeev in Novosibirsk, Russia emails: I'm a Russian, live in the centre of Russia - Siberia. No idea why Putin did this, this must be some mistake. We, the middle class of Russia, don't want any war, we don't want any imperial ambitions to be established. We want a decent life for us and our children and good relations with the whole world and with our neighbours. But even if he made this mistake, Putin has never retreated and he never said he was wrong. And this is what scares me most."

 

 

 

It's a train wreck: You want to help but there's nothing you can do.

You're not doing any good even to yourself by looking, but it's hard to stop.

 

Chris.

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"12:50: Boris Sergeev in Novosibirsk, Russia emails: I'm a Russian, live in the centre of Russia - Siberia. No idea why Putin did this, this must be some mistake. We, the middle class of Russia, don't want any war, we don't want any imperial ambitions to be established. We want a decent life for us and our children and good relations with the whole world and with our neighbours. But even if he made this mistake, Putin has never retreated and he never said he was wrong. And this is what scares me most."

 

Isn't this the story of every armed conflict ever in the history of ever? Basically?

 

I guess it's been a while since the last war in Europe. What, a decade or two? Not counting the last war Russia had like 6 years ago? It must be that time again. 

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no it is getting worse right NOW

the russians are trying to take over a Ukrainian military base

just saw it on CNN

 

 

And they left again?

An over-keen local commander reined back?

a "we can if we want to" demonstration of power?

 

It is likely that ten quiet but nervy days are coming now, until the Crimea has its referendum.

If that is *against* joining Russia all bets are off.  

(it may be: I've seen interviews with Russian speakers thinking they can get more Crimean autonomy staying with the Ukraine, than with Russia    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26486289)

If for Russia, it leaves more ground for discord.

 

Chris

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  • 3 weeks later...

He's got Crimea and now he wants the whole shebang.  At whatever cost. Putin is a malignant narcissistic. A sociopath perhaps. There is a fine line.

Yes. It's frightening what this all could lead to. Not to mention the apparent resurgence of the far-right across much of the EU. 

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